Prediction market news
Automatically generated from real price moves across Kalshi and Polymarket. Every figure below is a recorded market price — updated hourly.
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Odds climb 14 points to 44% on Polymarket
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Odds climb 10 points to 20% on Polymarket
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Odds climb 15 points to 75% on Polymarket
Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by June 30, 2027? Odds climb 54 points to 79% on Polymarket
Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 62 points to 75% on Polymarket
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Odds slide 27 points to 15% on Polymarket
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? Odds climb 13 points to 33% on Polymarket
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026? Odds climb 30 points to 89% on Polymarket
Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026? Odds climb 23 points to 69% on Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? Odds slide 16 points to 61% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 10 points to 75% on Polymarket
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15? Odds slide 30 points to 39% on Polymarket
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Odds climb 15 points to 78% on Polymarket
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? Odds slide 21 points to 21% on Polymarket
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Odds climb 16 points to 60% on Polymarket
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 10 points to 13% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? Odds slide 9 points to 26% on Polymarket
Will Juraj Droba win the 2026 Bratislava Region gubernatorial election? Odds climb 15 points to 87% on Polymarket
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? Odds climb 12 points to 33% on Polymarket
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Odds slide 14 points to 65% on Polymarket
Israel closes its airspace by September 30? Odds climb 11 points to 79% on Polymarket
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? Odds slide 12 points to 16% on Polymarket
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Odds climb 30 points to 46% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? Odds climb 9 points to 25% on Polymarket
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 9? Odds climb 26 points to 77% on Polymarket
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31? Odds climb 27 points to 92% on Polymarket
Israel closes its airspace by September 30? Odds climb 63 points to 68% on Polymarket
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? Odds slide 23 points to 18% on Polymarket
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Odds climb 29 points to 43% on Polymarket
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 7? Odds climb 18 points to 81% on Polymarket
Will Gladyz Butanda Macías win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? Odds slide 34 points to 17% on Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 21 points to 18% on Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 21 points to 25% on Polymarket
Israel closes its airspace by September 30? Odds climb 65 points to 73% on Polymarket
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? Odds climb 21 points to 43% on Polymarket
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 30? Odds climb 17 points to 67% on Polymarket
Will Gladyz Butanda Macías win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? Odds slide 22 points to 29% on Polymarket
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Odds climb 34 points to 47% on Polymarket
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? Odds climb 17 points to 27% on Polymarket
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13? Odds slide 22 points to 18% on Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? Odds climb 25 points to 72% on Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 27 points to 46% on Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Odds climb 30 points to 38% on Polymarket
Israel closes its airspace by September 30? Odds climb 33 points to 44% on Polymarket
Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026? Odds climb 33 points to 83% on Polymarket
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Odds climb 45 points to 58% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? Odds slide 37 points to 18% on Polymarket
Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes? Odds slide 17 points to 36% on Polymarket
Will SPD win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? Odds climb 28 points to 53% on Polymarket
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Odds climb 20 points to 35% on Polymarket
Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026? Odds climb 30 points to 90% on Polymarket
Will Russia enter Hannivka by September 30, 2026? Odds climb 36 points to 95% on Polymarket
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Odds climb 52 points to 55% on Polymarket
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Odds slide 16 points to 30% on Polymarket
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Odds slide 40 points to 16% on Polymarket
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Odds climb 28 points to 51% on Polymarket
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? Odds climb 8 points to 26% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? Odds slide 8 points to 30% on Polymarket
Will Iran target Qatar by September 30, 2026? Odds climb 9 points to 62% on Polymarket
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September? Odds slide 15 points to 48% on Polymarket
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15? Odds slide 32 points to 19% on Polymarket
Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections? Odds climb 32 points to 94% on Polymarket
Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08? Odds slide 35 points to 19% on Polymarket
Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6? Odds slide 28 points to 10% on Polymarket
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6? Odds slide 16 points to 47% on Polymarket
Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections? Odds climb 30 points to 92% on Polymarket
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? Odds climb 26 points to 37% on Polymarket
Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08? Odds climb 38 points to 80% on Polymarket
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 18 points to 19% on Polymarket
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 28 points to 19% on Polymarket
Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026? Odds slide 41 points to 10% on Polymarket
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? Odds climb 28 points to 52% on Polymarket
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? Odds slide 19 points to 33% on Polymarket
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 36 points to 16% on Polymarket
AK-AL primary: Who will advance? — Matthew Schultz: odds slide 22 points to 74% on Kalshi
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell? — On Nov 16, 2026: odds climb 43 points to 70% on Kalshi
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? Odds slide 23 points to 20% on Polymarket
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by August 31? Odds climb 69 points to 76% on Polymarket
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 4, 2026? Odds slide 30 points to 11% on Polymarket
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 4, 2026? Odds climb 22 points to 39% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? Odds climb 12 points to 51% on Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? Odds climb 28 points to 42% on Polymarket
Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026? Odds slide 31 points to 20% on Polymarket
Will Ruth González Silva win the 2027 San Luis Potosí Governor Election? Odds climb 16 points to 51% on Polymarket
Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30? Odds slide 10 points to 18% on Polymarket
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? Odds climb 47 points to 86% on Polymarket
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 25, 2026? Odds slide 15 points to 33% on Polymarket
Will there be 6 or more North Korea tests in August 2026? Odds slide 26 points to 18% on Polymarket
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Odds slide 24 points to 8% on Polymarket
Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026? Odds climb 33 points to 94% on Polymarket
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 26 points to 14% on Polymarket
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? Odds climb 30 points to 43% on Polymarket
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 34 points to 57% on Polymarket
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? Odds climb 30 points to 32% on Polymarket
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30? Odds slide 25 points to 14% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22? Odds climb 37 points to 43% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Odds slide 36 points to 23% on Polymarket
Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by December 31? Odds climb 13 points to 85% on Polymarket
Will Keith Kellogg visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 13 points to 86% on Polymarket
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31? Odds slide 14 points to 17% on Polymarket
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? Odds climb 65 points to 93% on Polymarket
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? Odds climb 24 points to 34% on Polymarket
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Odds slide 15 points to 26% on Polymarket
Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by December 31? Odds climb 14 points to 85% on Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? Odds slide 30 points to 28% on Polymarket
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30? Odds climb 21 points to 30% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Odds slide 33 points to 29% on Polymarket
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? Odds climb 65 points to 93% on Polymarket
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Odds slide 33 points to 11% on Polymarket
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? Odds slide 15 points to 19% on Polymarket
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? Odds climb 16 points to 54% on Polymarket
Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee? Odds slide 14 points to 28% on Polymarket
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 22 points to 45% on Polymarket
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? Odds climb 50 points to 92% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Odds slide 20 points to 31% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22? Odds slide 22 points to 13% on Polymarket
Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09? Odds slide 18 points to 11% on Polymarket
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? Odds slide 45 points to 16% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31? Odds slide 44 points to 43% on Polymarket
These reports are generated automatically from observed market prices. They describe what the market did — they are not predictions, analysis, or financial advice.