Prediction market news
Automatically generated from real price moves across Kalshi and Polymarket. Every figure below is a recorded market price — updated hourly.
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? Odds climb 17 points to 32% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds climb 50 points to 70% on Polymarket
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? Odds climb 9 points to 51% on Polymarket
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Odds climb 12 points to 35% on Polymarket
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Odds climb 38 points to 45% on Polymarket
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Odds slide 13 points to 29% on Polymarket
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat? Odds slide 39 points to 44% on Polymarket
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? Odds climb 18 points to 33% on Polymarket
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Odds climb 9 points to 63% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds climb 53 points to 72% on Polymarket
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? Odds slide 19 points to 5% on Polymarket
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? Odds climb 47 points to 60% on Polymarket
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Odds climb 14 points to 67% on Polymarket
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? Odds climb 34 points to 54% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Odds climb 50 points to 82% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds climb 57 points to 78% on Polymarket
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Odds slide 12 points to 36% on Polymarket
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%? Odds climb 17 points to 23% on Polymarket
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? Odds slide 12 points to 19% on Polymarket
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — Anna Kelly: odds climb 13 points to 30% on Kalshi
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds climb 11 points to 74% on Polymarket
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%? Odds slide 11 points to 30% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 10 points to 83% on Polymarket
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? Odds slide 13 points to 13% on Polymarket
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? Odds slide 13 points to 13% on Polymarket
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? Odds slide 12 points to 20% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Odds climb 37 points to 69% on Polymarket
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-15 House seat? Odds slide 18 points to 36% on Polymarket
Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat? Odds climb 20 points to 63% on Polymarket
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? Odds climb 25 points to 66% on Polymarket
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%? Odds slide 28 points to 13% on Polymarket
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? Odds climb 52 points to 66% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 28 points to 73% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds climb 31 points to 63% on Polymarket
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat? Odds climb 29 points to 48% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Odds climb 44 points to 73% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? Odds climb 42 points to 78% on Polymarket
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? Odds climb 21 points to 44% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 19 points to 56% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds climb 22 points to 53% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Odds climb 26 points to 55% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? Odds climb 21 points to 61% on Polymarket
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027? Odds slide 20 points to 18% on Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? Odds climb 29 points to 94% on Polymarket
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? Odds climb 19 points to 38% on Polymarket
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Odds slide 18 points to 13% on Polymarket
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Odds climb 16 points to 40% on Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Odds slide 22 points to 60% on Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Odds slide 24 points to 63% on Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? Odds slide 27 points to 65% on Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? Odds slide 31 points to 65% on Polymarket
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Odds slide 14 points to 82% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds slide 21 points to 20% on Polymarket
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Odds slide 17 points to 68% on Polymarket
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? Odds slide 11 points to 25% on Polymarket
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Odds climb 19 points to 68% on Polymarket
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Odds slide 19 points to 33% on Polymarket
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Odds slide 9 points to 46% on Polymarket
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? Odds slide 14 points to 22% on Polymarket
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? Odds climb 15 points to 79% on Polymarket
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%? Odds slide 9 points to 14% on Polymarket
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? Odds slide 19 points to 31% on Polymarket
Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election? Odds slide 12 points to 19% on Polymarket
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Odds slide 12 points to 27% on Polymarket
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Odds climb 8 points to 68% on Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Odds climb 9 points to 61% on Polymarket
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? Odds climb 10 points to 34% on Polymarket
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%? Odds climb 13 points to 19% on Polymarket
Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary? — Before Oct 20, 2026: odds climb 10 points to 95% on Kalshi
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? Odds climb 13 points to 35% on Polymarket
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat? Odds slide 12 points to 15% on Polymarket
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? Odds climb 15 points to 18% on Polymarket
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Odds climb 10 points to 66% on Polymarket
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat? Odds climb 9 points to 82% on Polymarket
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? Odds slide 20 points to 29% on Polymarket
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Odds slide 20 points to 32% on Polymarket
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Odds climb 8 points to 25% on Polymarket
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Odds climb 8 points to 59% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Odds slide 25 points to 6% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds slide 31 points to 21% on Polymarket
Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary? — Before Oct 20, 2026: odds climb 88 points to 91% on Kalshi
Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary? — Before Nov 1, 2026: odds climb 69 points to 94% on Kalshi
Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary? — Before Oct 24, 2026: odds climb 81 points to 95% on Kalshi
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Russia by December 31? Odds slide 34 points to 10% on Polymarket
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? Odds slide 21 points to 29% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds slide 20 points to 29% on Polymarket
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? Odds slide 29 points to 54% on Polymarket
Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary? — Before Jan 1, 2027: odds climb 12 points to 48% on Kalshi
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Odds slide 28 points to 9% on Polymarket
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 16 points to 15% on Polymarket
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? Odds climb 22 points to 39% on Polymarket
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026? Odds climb 39 points to 94% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Odds slide 25 points to 11% on Polymarket
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Odds climb 9 points to 26% on Polymarket
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026? Odds climb 33 points to 87% on Polymarket
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? Odds climb 32 points to 86% on Polymarket
Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31? Odds slide 25 points to 42% on Polymarket
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026? Odds climb 34 points to 89% on Polymarket
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026? Odds climb 17 points to 75% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Odds slide 13 points to 11% on Polymarket
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026? Odds climb 16 points to 79% on Polymarket
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026? Odds climb 14 points to 66% on Polymarket
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026? Odds climb 19 points to 74% on Polymarket
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? Odds climb 31 points to 84% on Polymarket
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026? Odds climb 13 points to 67% on Polymarket
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? Odds slide 34 points to 20% on Polymarket
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Odds slide 22 points to 66% on Polymarket
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Odds climb 11 points to 76% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Odds slide 14 points to 35% on Polymarket
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31? Odds climb 11 points to 56% on Polymarket
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? Odds slide 10 points to 86% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? Odds slide 24 points to 23% on Polymarket
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 18 points to 28% on Polymarket
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026? Odds climb 13 points to 60% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Odds climb 22 points to 45% on Polymarket
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31? Odds climb 12 points to 45% on Polymarket
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? Odds slide 9 points to 23% on Polymarket
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? Odds slide 8 points to 56% on Polymarket
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? Odds climb 13 points to 92% on Polymarket
These reports are generated automatically from observed market prices. They describe what the market did — they are not predictions, analysis, or financial advice.