Prediction market news
Automatically generated from real price moves across Kalshi and Polymarket. Every figure below is a recorded market price — updated hourly.
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Odds slide 26 points to 15% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 September 7-13? Odds slide 14 points to 30% on Polymarket
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Odds climb 14 points to 44% on Polymarket
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? Odds climb 12 points to 24% on Polymarket
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? Odds climb 23 points to 55% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Odds climb 12 points to 26% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 7-13? Odds slide 12 points to 55% on Polymarket
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Odds climb 10 points to 20% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 7-13? Odds slide 10 points to 24% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch? Odds climb 11 points to 90% on Polymarket
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Odds climb 15 points to 75% on Polymarket
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? Odds slide 34 points to 36% on Polymarket
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? Odds slide 16 points to 13% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 10? Odds climb 22 points to 72% on Polymarket
Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by June 30, 2027? Odds climb 54 points to 79% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch? Odds climb 20 points to 91% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? Odds climb 26 points to 72% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? Odds climb 21 points to 49% on Polymarket
Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 62 points to 75% on Polymarket
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? Odds slide 23 points to 10% on Polymarket
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? Odds slide 49 points to 24% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? Odds climb 26 points to 35% on Polymarket
BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $78,500 or above: odds climb 14 points to 63% on Kalshi
BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $79,000 or above: odds climb 16 points to 57% on Kalshi
BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $78,000 or above: odds climb 16 points to 71% on Kalshi
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 10? Odds climb 16 points to 39% on Polymarket
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Odds slide 27 points to 15% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 September 7-13? Odds slide 14 points to 35% on Polymarket
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? Odds climb 13 points to 33% on Polymarket
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Odds slide 13 points to 30% on Polymarket
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,200? Odds slide 13 points to 18% on Polymarket
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000? Odds slide 38 points to 51% on Polymarket
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? Odds climb 15 points to 40% on Polymarket
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026? Odds climb 30 points to 89% on Polymarket
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? Odds climb 20 points to 47% on Polymarket
Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026? Odds climb 23 points to 69% on Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? Odds slide 16 points to 61% on Polymarket
LAPTOP airdrop by September 30? Odds climb 45 points to 92% on Polymarket
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Odds slide 19 points to 35% on Polymarket
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026? Odds slide 20 points to 14% on Polymarket
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? Odds slide 23 points to 8% on Polymarket
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? Odds climb 20 points to 86% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 10 points to 75% on Polymarket
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? Odds climb 12 points to 24% on Polymarket
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? Odds climb 25 points to 76% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 7-13? Odds slide 17 points to 27% on Polymarket
LAPTOP airdrop by September 9? Odds climb 58 points to 80% on Polymarket
Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15? Odds slide 30 points to 39% on Polymarket
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 34 points to 57% on Polymarket
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Odds climb 15 points to 78% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch? Odds climb 16 points to 76% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 9? Odds slide 29 points to 14% on Polymarket
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Odds climb 21 points to 44% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? Odds slide 9 points to 9% on Polymarket
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? Odds climb 29 points to 47% on Polymarket
Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond — Jack Lowden: odds climb 27 points to 54% on Kalshi
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? Odds slide 21 points to 21% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 9? Odds slide 12 points to 67% on Polymarket
BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $81,000 or above: odds slide 14 points to 22% on Kalshi
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Odds climb 16 points to 60% on Polymarket
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? Odds climb 42 points to 68% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? Odds climb 17 points to 48% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 26 points to 55% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September? Odds climb 13 points to 83% on Polymarket
Will Apple TV win the most Emmys? Odds climb 75 points to 90% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September? Odds slide 12 points to 63% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? Odds slide 11 points to 45% on Polymarket
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 10 points to 13% on Polymarket
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Odds climb 16 points to 54% on Polymarket
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? Odds slide 13 points to 46% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? Odds slide 9 points to 26% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 7-13? Odds slide 18 points to 38% on Polymarket
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? Odds slide 20 points to 27% on Polymarket
Will Juraj Droba win the 2026 Bratislava Region gubernatorial election? Odds climb 15 points to 87% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 September 7-13? Odds slide 8 points to 21% on Polymarket
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? Odds climb 12 points to 33% on Polymarket
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 31 points to 5% on Polymarket
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 27 points to 64% on Polymarket
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Odds slide 14 points to 23% on Polymarket
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Odds slide 14 points to 65% on Polymarket
Israel closes its airspace by September 30? Odds climb 11 points to 79% on Polymarket
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? Odds slide 12 points to 16% on Polymarket
BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $82,000 or above: odds slide 8 points to 19% on Kalshi
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 8? Odds slide 24 points to 10% on Polymarket
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Odds climb 30 points to 46% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September? Odds climb 19 points to 78% on Polymarket
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? Odds climb 22 points to 42% on Polymarket
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 9 points to 15% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 9? Odds climb 9 points to 94% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? Odds climb 9 points to 25% on Polymarket
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Odds climb 9 points to 27% on Polymarket
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 9? Odds climb 26 points to 77% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September? Odds climb 25 points to 78% on Polymarket
Will Lacy and Marlon beat the gaming challenge by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? Odds climb 15 points to 90% on Polymarket
Will Lacy and Marlon beat the gaming challenge by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? Odds climb 25 points to 87% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 8? Odds climb 8 points to 92% on Polymarket
Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? Odds climb 33 points to 79% on Polymarket
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? Odds climb 29 points to 63% on Polymarket
Will "Turning Point: Generation 9/11" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Odds climb 60 points to 75% on Polymarket
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31? Odds climb 27 points to 92% on Polymarket
Israel closes its airspace by September 30? Odds climb 63 points to 68% on Polymarket
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? Odds slide 23 points to 18% on Polymarket
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? Odds slide 11 points to 7% on Polymarket
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? Odds slide 13 points to 16% on Polymarket
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026? Odds climb 14 points to 34% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? Odds climb 34 points to 67% on Polymarket
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? Odds climb 29 points to 43% on Polymarket
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? Odds climb 13 points to 33% on Polymarket
Will Lacy and Marlon have between 4 and 5 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? Odds climb 13 points to 38% on Polymarket
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026? Odds slide 16 points to 12% on Polymarket
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026? Odds climb 16 points to 64% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September? Odds climb 13 points to 77% on Polymarket
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 7? Odds climb 18 points to 81% on Polymarket
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 16 points to 63% on Polymarket
Will Gladyz Butanda Macías win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? Odds slide 34 points to 17% on Polymarket
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Odds slide 25 points to 36% on Polymarket
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 28 points to 9% on Polymarket
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? Odds slide 43 points to 9% on Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 21 points to 18% on Polymarket
These reports are generated automatically from observed market prices. They describe what the market did — they are not predictions, analysis, or financial advice.