Prediction market news
Automatically generated from real price moves across Kalshi and Polymarket. Every figure below is a recorded market price — updated hourly.
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 54 points to 29% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds climb 50 points to 70% on Polymarket
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Odds climb 9 points to 82% on Polymarket
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? Odds climb 9 points to 51% on Polymarket
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Odds climb 12 points to 35% on Polymarket
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher? Odds climb 15 points to 29% on Polymarket
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026? Odds climb 13 points to 25% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? Odds slide 17 points to 16% on Polymarket
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Odds climb 38 points to 45% on Polymarket
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 17 points to 54% on Polymarket
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Odds climb 24 points to 48% on Polymarket
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? Odds slide 13 points to 29% on Polymarket
BTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $79,000 or above: odds climb 12 points to 72% on Kalshi
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 26? Odds climb 12 points to 95% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October? Odds slide 17 points to 39% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October? Odds climb 14 points to 64% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 26? Odds slide 9 points to 15% on Polymarket
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Odds climb 26 points to 62% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? Odds slide 25 points to 9% on Polymarket
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat? Odds slide 39 points to 44% on Polymarket
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? Odds climb 18 points to 33% on Polymarket
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Odds climb 9 points to 63% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? Odds slide 21 points to 28% on Polymarket
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Odds slide 25 points to 35% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds climb 53 points to 72% on Polymarket
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 26? Odds slide 9 points to 31% on Polymarket
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Odds climb 12 points to 36% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in October? Odds climb 16 points to 42% on Polymarket
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? Odds climb 17 points to 32% on Polymarket
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? Odds slide 19 points to 5% on Polymarket
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? Odds climb 47 points to 60% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October? Odds climb 28 points to 51% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 26? Odds slide 33 points to 47% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 25? Odds slide 44 points to 43% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 26? Odds slide 24 points to 13% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25? Odds climb 21 points to 28% on Polymarket
Will Solana dip to $100 October 19-25? Odds climb 59 points to 78% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25? Odds climb 70 points to 82% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October? Odds climb 24 points to 56% on Polymarket
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Odds climb 14 points to 67% on Polymarket
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Odds slide 23 points to 8% on Polymarket
Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 22m? Odds climb 19 points to 53% on Polymarket
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? Odds climb 34 points to 54% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Odds climb 50 points to 82% on Polymarket
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Odds climb 61 points to 77% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds climb 57 points to 78% on Polymarket
Will average **gas prices** be above $4.30? Odds climb 14 points to 35% on Kalshi
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25? Odds climb 20 points to 52% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? Odds slide 21 points to 26% on Polymarket
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026? Odds slide 15 points to 22% on Polymarket
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Odds slide 17 points to 56% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? Odds climb 16 points to 80% on Polymarket
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Odds climb 17 points to 44% on Polymarket
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Odds slide 23 points to 53% on Polymarket
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? Odds slide 28 points to 33% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25? Odds slide 17 points to 6% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October? Odds slide 15 points to 64% on Polymarket
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M? Odds slide 19 points to 54% on Polymarket
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Odds slide 12 points to 36% on Polymarket
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%? Odds climb 17 points to 23% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25? Odds slide 28 points to 10% on Polymarket
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? Odds slide 12 points to 19% on Polymarket
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? Odds climb 13 points to 95% on Polymarket
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Odds climb 40 points to 79% on Polymarket
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Odds slide 20 points to 11% on Polymarket
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? — Anna Kelly: odds climb 13 points to 30% on Kalshi
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? Odds climb 13 points to 32% on Polymarket
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Odds climb 9 points to 59% on Polymarket
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026? Odds slide 36 points to 24% on Polymarket
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 39 points to 26% on Polymarket
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Odds climb 39 points to 74% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25? Odds slide 19 points to 29% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds climb 11 points to 74% on Polymarket
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%? Odds slide 11 points to 30% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 10 points to 83% on Polymarket
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? Odds slide 13 points to 13% on Polymarket
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? Odds slide 12 points to 14% on Polymarket
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? Odds slide 13 points to 13% on Polymarket
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? Odds slide 12 points to 20% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Odds climb 37 points to 69% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? Odds climb 14 points to 64% on Polymarket
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-15 House seat? Odds slide 18 points to 36% on Polymarket
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Odds slide 22 points to 68% on Polymarket
Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat? Odds climb 20 points to 63% on Polymarket
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? Odds slide 63 points to 18% on Polymarket
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? Odds climb 25 points to 66% on Polymarket
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%? Odds slide 28 points to 13% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25? Odds climb 24 points to 34% on Polymarket
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Odds climb 22 points to 30% on Polymarket
BTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $81,000 or above: odds slide 37 points to 59% on Kalshi
BTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $81,500 or above: odds slide 47 points to 46% on Kalshi
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? Odds climb 51 points to 66% on Polymarket
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? Odds climb 52 points to 66% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? Odds slide 36 points to 21% on Polymarket
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 23 points to 52% on Polymarket
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 24? Odds slide 45 points to 8% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 19-25? Odds slide 23 points to 9% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 28 points to 73% on Polymarket
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? Odds climb 31 points to 63% on Polymarket
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat? Odds climb 29 points to 48% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 23? Odds slide 32 points to 9% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25? Odds climb 24 points to 48% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? Odds slide 27 points to 47% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October? Odds slide 25 points to 29% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? Odds climb 23 points to 67% on Polymarket
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? Odds slide 29 points to 25% on Polymarket
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? Odds climb 64 points to 83% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October? Odds slide 35 points to 23% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Odds climb 44 points to 73% on Polymarket
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? Odds climb 42 points to 78% on Polymarket
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Odds slide 22 points to 20% on Polymarket
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? Odds slide 16 points to 13% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October? Odds climb 30 points to 91% on Polymarket
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30? Odds slide 22 points to 14% on Polymarket
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Odds climb 18 points to 75% on Polymarket
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Odds climb 19 points to 57% on Polymarket
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? Odds climb 21 points to 44% on Polymarket
BTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $84,000 or above: odds climb 43 points to 59% on Kalshi
BTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $83,000 or above: odds climb 47 points to 78% on Kalshi
These reports are generated automatically from observed market prices. They describe what the market did — they are not predictions, analysis, or financial advice.