Prediction market news
Automatically generated from real price moves across Kalshi and Polymarket. Every figure below is a recorded market price — updated hourly.
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? Odds slide 47 points to 23% on Polymarket
Will "The Odyssey" 4th Weekend Box Office be at least 32m? Odds slide 34 points to 51% on Polymarket
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 140m and 150m? Odds climb 49 points to 57% on Polymarket
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? Odds slide 16 points to 20% on Polymarket
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Odds climb 26 points to 37% on Polymarket
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Odds slide 16 points to 70% on Polymarket
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? — Above 3.75%: odds slide 14 points to 38% on Kalshi
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Odds climb 14 points to 63% on Polymarket
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Odds climb 17 points to 32% on Polymarket
Will "The Pitt" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? Odds climb 19 points to 48% on Polymarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August? Odds climb 19 points to 34% on Polymarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Odds slide 20 points to 72% on Polymarket
Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? Odds slide 25 points to 41% on Polymarket
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? Odds slide 22 points to 56% on Polymarket
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? Odds slide 35 points to 51% on Polymarket
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? Odds slide 47 points to 9% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? Odds climb 43 points to 55% on Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? Odds climb 42 points to 87% on Polymarket
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31? Odds climb 23 points to 38% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? Odds slide 57 points to 16% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? Odds slide 47 points to 28% on Polymarket
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Odds slide 42 points to 50% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 8? Odds slide 16 points to 7% on Polymarket
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? Odds climb 34 points to 36% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 3-9? Odds slide 15 points to 9% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 8? Odds climb 22 points to 62% on Polymarket
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Odds climb 20 points to 51% on Polymarket
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? Odds climb 20 points to 88% on Polymarket
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? Odds climb 21 points to 25% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August? Odds climb 18 points to 80% on Polymarket
Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 9? Odds climb 18 points to 40% on Polymarket
Will "The Pitt" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? Odds climb 19 points to 48% on Polymarket
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? Odds slide 19 points to 10% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9? Odds slide 26 points to 27% on Polymarket
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? Odds climb 53 points to 95% on Polymarket
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? Odds slide 28 points to 60% on Polymarket
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? Odds slide 37 points to 37% on Polymarket
Will Rodri stay at Manchester City? Odds slide 34 points to 5% on Polymarket
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? Odds slide 18 points to 25% on Polymarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August? Odds climb 50 points to 62% on Polymarket
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? Odds climb 66 points to 82% on Polymarket
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 August 3-9? Odds slide 25 points to 15% on Polymarket
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? Odds slide 21 points to 33% on Polymarket
BTC price on Aug 7, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $63,500 or above: odds climb 21 points to 86% on Kalshi
BTC price on Aug 7, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $64,000 or above: odds climb 23 points to 75% on Kalshi
Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? Odds climb 20 points to 62% on Polymarket
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 7? Odds climb 22 points to 54% on Polymarket
Grok 4.6 released by August 7, 2026? Odds slide 17 points to 6% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 7? Odds climb 42 points to 78% on Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? Odds slide 22 points to 34% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? Odds slide 55 points to 20% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? Odds climb 52 points to 64% on Polymarket
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Odds slide 24 points to 41% on Polymarket
Will "Beef" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys? Odds slide 24 points to 29% on Polymarket
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? Odds slide 23 points to 57% on Polymarket
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Odds climb 51 points to 88% on Polymarket
Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess? Odds slide 21 points to 19% on Polymarket
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? Odds slide 40 points to 34% on Polymarket
ETH price on Aug 7, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $1,890 or above: odds climb 34 points to 68% on Kalshi
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? Odds slide 61 points to 11% on Polymarket
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Odds slide 50 points to 8% on Polymarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August? Odds climb 49 points to 57% on Polymarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August? Odds climb 26 points to 30% on Polymarket
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? Odds climb 26 points to 67% on Polymarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026? Odds climb 49 points to 52% on Polymarket
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Odds slide 55 points to 13% on Polymarket
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? Odds climb 64 points to 80% on Polymarket
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? Odds slide 20 points to 38% on Polymarket
BTC price on Aug 7, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $63,000 or above: odds climb 20 points to 79% on Kalshi
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? Odds climb 21 points to 46% on Polymarket
Squid FDV above $100M one day after launch: odds climb 19 points to 69% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? Odds slide 38 points to 37% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? Odds climb 22 points to 58% on Polymarket
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Odds climb 39 points to 68% on Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Odds climb 21 points to 82% on Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? Odds climb 26 points to 49% on Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? Odds climb 28 points to 74% on Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? Odds climb 22 points to 84% on Polymarket
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? Odds slide 20 points to 47% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? Odds slide 56 points to 19% on Polymarket
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $140 in August? Odds slide 21 points to 37% on Polymarket
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? Odds climb 23 points to 78% on Polymarket
Will Mark Keough win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election? Odds climb 34 points to 79% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? Odds slide 55 points to 18% on Polymarket
Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next? Odds climb 31 points to 89% on Polymarket
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6? Odds slide 24 points to 6% on Polymarket
Squid FDV above $75M one day after launch: odds climb 39 points to 92% on Polymarket
Squid FDV above $100M one day after launch: odds climb 24 points to 57% on Polymarket
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Odds slide 51 points to 17% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? Odds slide 24 points to 45% on Polymarket
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? Odds slide 16 points to 5% on Polymarket
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? Odds climb 58 points to 73% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? Odds climb 43 points to 56% on Polymarket
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? Odds climb 20 points to 47% on Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? Odds climb 17 points to 36% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9? Odds climb 18 points to 33% on Polymarket
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? Odds climb 19 points to 88% on Polymarket
Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections? Odds slide 34 points to 38% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? Odds slide 14 points to 69% on Polymarket
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? Odds slide 14 points to 12% on Polymarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? Odds slide 36 points to 39% on Polymarket
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? Odds climb 16 points to 39% on Polymarket
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Odds climb 13 points to 47% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August? Odds climb 15 points to 86% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 5? Odds climb 23 points to 95% on Polymarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? Odds slide 16 points to 48% on Polymarket
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 5? Odds climb 19 points to 44% on Polymarket
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? Odds slide 15 points to 10% on Polymarket
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 4? Odds slide 18 points to 22% on Polymarket
Will "Hacks" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? Odds climb 21 points to 46% on Polymarket
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 4? Odds climb 30 points to 45% on Polymarket
BTC price on Aug 4, 2026 at 5pm EDT? — $63,500 or above: odds slide 21 points to 48% on Kalshi
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? Odds slide 49 points to 23% on Polymarket
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Odds slide 37 points to 11% on Polymarket
Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Odds climb 22 points to 95% on Polymarket
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? Odds climb 35 points to 62% on Polymarket
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? Odds climb 13 points to 93% on Polymarket
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? Odds climb 15 points to 21% on Polymarket
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? Odds climb 39 points to 69% on Polymarket
These reports are generated automatically from observed market prices. They describe what the market did — they are not predictions, analysis, or financial advice.