Prediction market news
Automatically generated from real price moves across Kalshi and Polymarket. Every figure below is a recorded market price — updated hourly.
LAPTOP FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Odds climb 12 points to 26% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch? Odds climb 11 points to 90% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch? Odds climb 20 points to 91% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? Odds climb 26 points to 72% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? Odds climb 21 points to 49% on Polymarket
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? Odds slide 23 points to 10% on Polymarket
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? Odds slide 49 points to 24% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? Odds climb 26 points to 35% on Polymarket
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Odds slide 13 points to 30% on Polymarket
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,200? Odds slide 13 points to 18% on Polymarket
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000? Odds slide 38 points to 51% on Polymarket
LAPTOP airdrop by September 30? Odds climb 45 points to 92% on Polymarket
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Odds slide 19 points to 35% on Polymarket
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? Odds climb 12 points to 24% on Polymarket
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? Odds climb 25 points to 76% on Polymarket
LAPTOP airdrop by September 9? Odds climb 58 points to 80% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch? Odds climb 16 points to 76% on Polymarket
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Odds climb 21 points to 44% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? Odds slide 9 points to 9% on Polymarket
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? Odds climb 17 points to 48% on Polymarket
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Odds climb 16 points to 54% on Polymarket
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? Odds slide 13 points to 46% on Polymarket
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 31 points to 5% on Polymarket
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Odds slide 14 points to 23% on Polymarket
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 9 points to 15% on Polymarket
Will Lacy and Marlon beat the gaming challenge by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? Odds climb 15 points to 90% on Polymarket
Will Lacy and Marlon beat the gaming challenge by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? Odds climb 25 points to 87% on Polymarket
Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? Odds climb 33 points to 79% on Polymarket
Will Lacy and Marlon have between 4 and 5 Minecraft deaths during the marathon? Odds climb 13 points to 38% on Polymarket
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Odds slide 25 points to 36% on Polymarket
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 28 points to 9% on Polymarket
Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? Odds slide 31 points to 19% on Polymarket
Will Henrik Fritzon be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne? Odds slide 33 points to 27% on Polymarket
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Odds slide 19 points to 49% on Polymarket
Over $7.5M committed to the Ethos public sale? Odds climb 41 points to 69% on Polymarket
Over $4M committed to the Ethos public sale? Odds climb 27 points to 95% on Polymarket
Over $5M committed to the Ethos public sale? Odds climb 25 points to 70% on Polymarket
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? Odds climb 26 points to 86% on Polymarket
Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? Odds slide 22 points to 19% on Polymarket
Will Henrik Fritzon be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne? Odds slide 30 points to 30% on Polymarket
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by October 31? Odds slide 28 points to 16% on Polymarket
Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 100 Fortnite deaths during the marathon? Odds climb 53 points to 79% on Polymarket
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of August 31 2026? Odds climb 67 points to 84% on Polymarket
Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 50 Warzone deaths during the marathon? Odds slide 18 points to 15% on Polymarket
Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? Odds climb 25 points to 59% on Polymarket
Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 100 Fortnite deaths during the marathon? Odds climb 44 points to 76% on Polymarket
Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? Odds slide 20 points to 13% on Polymarket
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? Odds slide 32 points to 46% on Polymarket
Will Justin Fields start Week 1 for the Chiefs in 2026? Odds slide 38 points to 5% on Polymarket
Will Naomi Osaka advance to the Quarterfinals in Women's Singles at the 2026 US Open? Odds slide 15 points to 16% on Polymarket
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? Odds climb 23 points to 78% on Polymarket
Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Odds climb 9 points to 18% on Polymarket
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Odds climb 16 points to 74% on Polymarket
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? Odds slide 22 points to 35% on Polymarket
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? Odds climb 18 points to 32% on Polymarket
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026? Odds climb 24 points to 88% on Polymarket
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City? Odds climb 64 points to 86% on Polymarket
Draw/Tie wins — Pakistan: odds climb 16 points to 29% on Kalshi
Draw/Tie wins — England: odds slide 16 points to 58% on Kalshi
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August? Odds slide 34 points to 18% on Polymarket
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026? Odds climb 18 points to 92% on Polymarket
Will XRP reach $1.60 in August? Odds climb 32 points to 45% on Polymarket
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? Odds slide 37 points to 28% on Polymarket
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in August? Odds climb 33 points to 53% on Polymarket
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City? Odds climb 50 points to 71% on Polymarket
Will the United Arab Emirates join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 45 points to 7% on Polymarket
Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 31 points to 20% on Polymarket
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Odds slide 17 points to 53% on Polymarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August? Odds slide 31 points to 57% on Polymarket
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? Odds climb 25 points to 49% on Polymarket
Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026? Odds slide 20 points to 31% on Polymarket
Will the United Arab Emirates join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? Odds slide 31 points to 21% on Polymarket
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City? Odds climb 27 points to 85% on Polymarket
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31? Odds slide 22 points to 22% on Polymarket
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Odds climb 23 points to 66% on Polymarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August? Odds climb 64 points to 68% on Polymarket
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City? Odds climb 45 points to 67% on Polymarket
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Odds slide 29 points to 6% on Polymarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August? Odds climb 23 points to 81% on Polymarket
Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026? Odds climb 25 points to 73% on Polymarket
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Odds slide 20 points to 60% on Polymarket
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Odds slide 23 points to 12% on Polymarket
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Odds slide 17 points to 38% on Polymarket
Will XRP reach $1.80 in August? Odds slide 32 points to 16% on Polymarket
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on August 26? Odds climb 23 points to 87% on Polymarket
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Odds slide 15 points to 30% on Polymarket
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Odds slide 18 points to 36% on Polymarket
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on August 26? Odds climb 25 points to 91% on Polymarket
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? Odds slide 17 points to 59% on Polymarket
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Odds slide 29 points to 44% on Polymarket
Will XRP reach $1.60 August 17-23? Odds climb 77 points to 82% on Polymarket
Will XRP reach $1.80 in August? Odds climb 35 points to 38% on Polymarket
Will XRP reach $1.60 in August? Odds climb 38 points to 45% on Polymarket
Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch? Odds slide 34 points to 7% on Polymarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August? Odds climb 48 points to 73% on Polymarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in August? Odds climb 50 points to 91% on Polymarket
Will XRP reach $1.40 August 17-23? Odds climb 28 points to 31% on Polymarket
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on August 26? Odds climb 31 points to 35% on Polymarket
Will XRP reach $1.40 in August? Odds climb 32 points to 35% on Polymarket
Will XRP reach $1.30 August 17-23? Odds climb 56 points to 61% on Polymarket
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on August 21? Odds climb 80 points to 83% on Polymarket
Will XRP reach $1.20 August 17-23? Odds climb 82 points to 87% on Polymarket
Will XRP reach $1.20 in August? Odds climb 79 points to 90% on Polymarket
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August? Odds climb 84 points to 86% on Polymarket
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by August 31? Odds slide 19 points to 30% on Polymarket
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Odds slide 21 points to 24% on Polymarket
Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Odds climb 24 points to 46% on Polymarket
Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? Odds climb 17 points to 55% on Polymarket
Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City? Odds slide 25 points to 32% on Polymarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August? Odds slide 37 points to 42% on Polymarket
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14? Odds climb 80 points to 85% on Polymarket
Christopher Luxon out by September 30? Odds slide 42 points to 7% on Polymarket
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 14? Odds climb 56 points to 62% on Polymarket
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon? Odds climb 64 points to 68% on Polymarket
Will Kai or Speed die to a Warden? Odds slide 51 points to 24% on Polymarket
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? Odds slide 63 points to 15% on Polymarket
Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? Odds slide 18 points to 11% on Polymarket
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? Odds climb 15 points to 33% on Polymarket
Christopher Luxon out by September 30? Odds slide 32 points to 7% on Polymarket
These reports are generated automatically from observed market prices. They describe what the market did — they are not predictions, analysis, or financial advice.