All markets / Economics & Fed Odds
Economics & Fed Odds
Interest rates, inflation and macroeconomic prediction market odds, compared across venues.
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026
2 happen is the most likely at 60%.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap pts | 24h pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 happen | — | 60¢ | — | -2.0 | |
| 3 happen | — | 24¢ | — | +5.1 | |
| 1 hike happen | — | 17¢ | — | -2.0 |
Anthropic IPO by __
November 30, 2026 leads at 65%.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap pts | 24h pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30, 2026 | — | 65¢ | — | -14.5 | |
| November 15, 2026 | — | 49¢ | — | -22.5 |
Single markets
Nothing matches that filter.
How to read these odds
A prediction-market price is the probability. A contract trading at 24¢ pays $1 if the event happens, so the market is saying roughly a 24% chance. That is the whole conversion — no vig to strip out, no moneyline to decode.
| Price | Implied chance | American odds |
|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 5% | +1900 |
| 10¢ | 10% | +900 |
| 25¢ | 25% | +300 |
| 40¢ | 40% | +150 |
| 50¢ | 50% | even |
| 60¢ | 60% | −150 |
| 75¢ | 75% | −300 |
| 90¢ | 90% | −900 |
American odds shown for orientation if you are coming from a sportsbook. Prediction markets quote the price directly, which is why the middle column needs no arithmetic.
Why the two venues disagree
Kalshi and Polymarket are separate order books with separate participants, so the same question can carry different prices. A gap is not automatically free money. Three things eat it:
- The contracts may not settle the same way. Fed and inflation markets settle on the official release — the FOMC statement or the BLS print — not on a forecast. Two markets with near-identical titles can still resolve on different sources, cutoffs or tie-breaks. We machine-check every cross-venue pair before calling it a match, and a pair our verifier rejects is not shown here as one market.
- The quoted price is the midpoint. What you can actually buy at is the ask, which on a thin book can sit well above the mid.
- Fees and capital. Both venues take a cut, and holding both legs to settlement ties money up until the event resolves.
Where a gap survives all three, that is what the edge scanner is for.
Common questions
- Are these live prices?
- Yes. Prices are re-read from both venues every few minutes. The 24h column compares against our own recorded price from a day earlier.
- Why do some rows show only one venue?
- Because only one venue lists that question. Kalshi and Polymarket carry substantially different catalogues — most markets exist on one and not the other.
- Do the outcomes in a race add up to 100%?
- Usually not exactly. Each outcome is its own contract with its own book, so the sum drifts above or below 100 depending on where the spreads sit. A sum well above 100 is the market pricing in more certainty than the field can collectively deliver.
- Can I trade here?
- No. MarketMaster is read-only — we show the prices and the analysis, and you trade on the venue itself.