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Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

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KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
1¢ last
BidAsk
YES1¢2¢
NO98¢99¢
$6,934,256 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
1¢ last
BidAsk
YES1¢1¢
NO99¢99¢
$26,350,977 volume
Cross-venue spread 0.9¢
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See all 25 outcomes2028 Democratic presidential nominee Where else do the venues disagree?Live cross-venue gaps across every market Open in the analyzerPrice history, alerts and your watchlist
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +0.9¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Michelle Obama wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread0.9¢
Kalshi last1¢
Polymarket last1¢
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.