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Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Post ☰ See all 17 outcomes in 2028 Democratic presidential nominee →

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028

This market group is no longer actively tracked — final data shown. See live edges →

MarketMaster fair value9¢ vs live 7¢ on Polymarket

▲ +1.2% edge · Buy YES

Trade on Polymarket ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiTrade ↗

9¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	9¢	9¢
NO	91¢	91¢

$6,995,190 volume

PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

8¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	7¢	8¢
NO	93¢	93¢

$13,011,206 volume

Cross-venue spread 1.5¢

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CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.5¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Kamala Harris wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread1.5¢

Kalshi last9¢

Polymarket last8¢

Model fair value9¢

Model confidence37%

Venues2

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