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2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Every outcome in this field. Cheapest venue highlighted; the gap column is the cross-venue spread in cents.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads this field at 16¢ (19¢ on Polymarket, 16¢ on Kalshi), ahead of Jon Ossoff at 16¢. The top three of 26 priced outcomes carry about 67% of the implied probability between them. The venues disagree most on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, quoted 3¢ apart on a pair machine-checked to settle identically. Around $322,390 of 24-hour volume stands behind these prices.
23 of 26 outcomes are also listed on Kalshi and machine-checked to settle on the same criteria
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez✓ | 16¢ | 19¢ | 3 |
| Jon Ossoff✓ | 17¢ | 16¢ | 1 |
| Gavin Newsom✓ | 14¢ | 16¢ | 2 |
| Kamala Harris✓ | 8¢ | 10¢ | 2 |
| Josh Shapiro✓ | 5¢ | 6¢ | 1 |
| Mark Kelly✓ | 4¢ | 3¢ | 1 |
| James Talarico✓ | 2¢ | 2¢ | 0 |
| Wes Moore✓ | 2¢ | 2¢ | 0 |
| Ro Khanna✓ | 2¢ | 1¢ | 1 |
| Yes | — | 1¢ | — |
| Raphael Warnock✓ | 1¢ | 1¢ | 0 |
| Hunter Biden✓ | 0¢ | 1¢ | 1 |
| Jon Stewart✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Mark Cuban✓ | 1¢ | 0¢ | 1 |
| Zohran Mamdani✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Stephen A. Smith✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Jared Polis✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Hillary Clinton✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Roy Cooper✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Liz Cheney✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Yes | — | 0¢ | — |
| Tim Walz✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| LeBron James✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Yes | — | 0¢ | — |
| Phil Murphy✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| John Fetterman✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
Prices are live and move constantly — confirm on the venue before trading. A ✓ means our verifier compared both venues' resolution criteria and found them equivalent; its absence means not checked yet, never that they differ. MarketMaster is read-only research, not financial advice.