Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028

MarketMaster fair value28¢ vs live 26¢ on Polymarket

▲ +1.6% edge · Buy YES

LIVE PRICES — YES

30¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	29¢	30¢
NO	70¢	71¢

$4,580,687 volume

PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

26¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	26¢	27¢
NO	74¢	74¢

$9,734,552 volume

Cross-venue spread 3.6¢· active arbitrage window

CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.5¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Marco Rubio wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread3.6¢

Kalshi last30¢

Polymarket last26¢

Model fair value28¢

Model confidence40%

Venues2

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