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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Post ☰ See all 17 outcomes in 2028 Democratic presidential nominee →
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028
MarketMaster fair value16¢ vs live 14¢ on Kalshi
2.3% against the midpoint, 1.8% against the 14¢ ask you would actually pay, +1.0% after the 0.84¢ taker fee.
▲ +1.0% after fees · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
14¢ last
BidAsk
YES13¢14¢
NO86¢87¢
$9,688,862 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
18¢ last
BidAsk
YES18¢18¢
NO82¢82¢
$15,442,195 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.9¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 96¢ per $1 payout, locking +3.9¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread3.9¢
Kalshi last14¢
Polymarket last18¢
Model fair value16¢
Model confidence34%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.