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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Post ☰ See all 27 outcomes in 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? →
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Jan 21, 2029
MarketMaster fair value11¢ vs live 10¢ on Kalshi
▲ +1.7% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
10¢ last
BidAsk
YES10¢
NO90¢91¢
$3,613,040 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
13¢ last
BidAsk
YES13¢13¢
NO87¢87¢
$13,304,456 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.1¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 97¢ per $1 payout, locking +3.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.1¢
Kalshi last10¢
Polymarket last13¢
Model fair value11¢
Model confidence37%
Venues2
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