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2028 Republican presidential nominee — J.D. Vance

Post ☰ See all 16 outcomes in 2028 Republican presidential nominee →

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028

MarketMaster fair value54¢ vs live 51¢ on Polymarket

▲ +3.1% edge · Buy NO

Trade on Polymarket ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

44¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	43¢	44¢
NO	56¢	57¢

$4,163,020 volume

PolymarketTrade ↗

49¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	49¢	49¢
NO	51¢	51¢

$15,438,408 volume

Cross-venue spread 5.1¢· active arbitrage window

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CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 95¢ per $1 payout, locking +5.1¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread5.1¢

Kalshi last44¢

Polymarket last49¢

Model fair value46¢

Model confidence38%

Venues2

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