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2028 Republican presidential nominee — J.D. Vance

Post ☰ See all 17 outcomes in 2028 Republican presidential nominee →

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028

This market group is no longer actively tracked — final data shown. See live edges →

MarketMaster fair value43¢ vs live 42¢ on Kalshi

1.2% against the midpoint, 0.7% against the 42¢ ask you would actually pay, -1.0% after the 1.71¢ taker fee.

No edge after fees

Trade on Kalshi ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

41¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	41¢	42¢
NO	58¢	59¢

$4,720,453 volume

PolymarketTrade ↗

44¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	44¢	44¢
NO	56¢	56¢

$16,010,843 volume

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Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window

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See all 17 outcomes2028 Republican presidential nominee Where else do the venues disagree?Live cross-venue gaps across every market Open in the analyzerPrice history, alerts and your watchlist

CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.7¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread3.0¢

Kalshi last41¢

Polymarket last44¢

Model fair value43¢

Model confidence41%

Venues2

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