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2028 Republican presidential nominee
Every outcome in this field. Cheapest venue highlighted; the gap column is the cross-venue spread in cents.
Marco Rubio leads this field at 16¢ (16¢ on Polymarket, 21¢ on Kalshi), ahead of Tucker Carlson at 3¢. The top three of 14 priced outcomes carry about 92% of the implied probability between them. The venues disagree most on Marco Rubio, quoted 5¢ apart on a pair machine-checked to settle identically. Around $152,135 of 24-hour volume stands behind these prices.
13 of 14 outcomes are also listed on Kalshi and machine-checked to settle on the same criteria
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio✓ | 21¢ | 16¢ | 5 |
| Tucker Carlson✓ | 3¢ | 4¢ | 1 |
| Ron DeSantis✓ | 4¢ | 3¢ | 1 |
| Donald J. Trump Jr.✓ | 3¢ | 2¢ | 1 |
| Candace Owens✓ | 1¢ | 0¢ | 1 |
| Rand Paul✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Elon Musk✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Greg Abbott✓ | 1¢ | 0¢ | 1 |
| Mike Pence✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| John Thune✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders✓ | 1¢ | 0¢ | 1 |
| Erika Kirk✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Matt Gaetz✓ | 0¢ | 0¢ | 0 |
| Yes | — | 0¢ | — |
Prices are live and move constantly — confirm on the venue before trading. A ✓ means our verifier compared both venues' resolution criteria and found them equivalent; its absence means not checked yet, never that they differ. MarketMaster is read-only research, not financial advice.