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Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Post ☰ See all 9 outcomes in 2028 Democratic presidential nominee →

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028

MarketMaster fair value96¢ vs live 95¢ on Kalshi

▲ +1.5% edge · Buy NO

Trade on Kalshi ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiTrade ↗

5¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	5¢	5¢
NO	95¢	95¢

$7,047,920 volume

PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

3¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	3¢	3¢
NO	97¢	97¢

$17,406,235 volume

Cross-venue spread 2.5¢· active arbitrage window

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CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.2¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Mark Kelly wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread2.5¢

Kalshi last5¢

Polymarket last3¢

Model fair value4¢

Model confidence49%

Venues2

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