Guides
Questions about prediction markets, answered from the live board rather than from memory. Every number on these pages is recomputed with the engine, so they change as the markets do.
Is there arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket?
The live answer, with every gap shown before and after fees.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: how the two venues actually differ
Market counts, volume, fees and overlap, counted from today's board.
How accurate are prediction market prices?
Our own resolved markets, bucketed by price against what actually happened.
How much do Kalshi and Polymarket fees actually cost?
Measured per contract on the live board, and why the cost peaks near 50c.