Scanner / Politics

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2029
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
18¢ last
BidAsk
YES17¢18¢
NO82¢83¢
$3,115,627 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
20¢ last
BidAsk
YES20¢20¢
NO80¢80¢
$14,547,489 volume
Cross-venue spread 1.9¢
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.9¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread1.9¢
Kalshi last18¢
Polymarket last20¢
Venues2
TRACK THIS MARKET

Get an email the moment the price or edge moves — watchlists, whale alerts and the full scanner are free to start.

Start free — no card
RELATED MARKETS
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?