Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Name: Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — daily price history on Kalshi and Polymarket
Creator: MarketMaster
License: https://marketmaster.live/terms

Post ☰ See all 11 outcomes in 2028 Republican presidential nominee →

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028

MarketMaster fair value47¢ vs live 44¢ on Kalshi

3.8% against the midpoint, 3.3% against the 44¢ ask you would actually pay, +1.5% after the 1.72¢ taker fee.

▲ +1.5% after fees · Buy YES

Trade on Kalshi ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

44¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	43¢	44¢
NO	56¢	57¢

$4,598,851 volume

PolymarketTrade ↗

50¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	50¢	50¢
NO	50¢	50¢

$15,759,089 volume

Cross-venue spread 6.2¢· active arbitrage window

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See all 11 outcomes2028 Republican presidential nominee Where else do the venues disagree?Live cross-venue gaps across every market Open in the analyzerPrice history, alerts and your watchlist

CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 94¢ per $1 payout, locking +6.2¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread6.2¢

Kalshi last44¢

Polymarket last50¢

Model fair value47¢

Model confidence32%

Venues2

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ELSEWHERE

What a cross-venue gap is actually worth · How accurate are these prices?

The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.