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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
7¢ last
BidAsk
YES6¢7¢
NO93¢95¢
$176,034 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
41¢ last
BidAsk
YES41¢41¢
NO59¢59¢
$14,323,215 volume
Cross-venue spread 33.4¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 67¢ per $1 payout, locking +33.4¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If J.D. Vance accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread33.4¢
Kalshi last7¢
Polymarket last41¢
Venues2
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