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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

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KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028

MarketMaster fair value46¢ vs live 44¢ on Kalshi

▲ +2.0% edge · Buy YES

Trade on Kalshi ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

44¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	43¢	44¢
NO	56¢	57¢

$4,095,719 volume

PolymarketTrade ↗

47¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	47¢	47¢
NO	53¢	53¢

$15,305,705 volume

Cross-venue spread 3.4¢· active arbitrage window

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CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 97¢ per $1 payout, locking +3.3¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread3.4¢

Kalshi last44¢

Polymarket last47¢

Model fair value46¢

Model confidence40%

Venues2

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