Skip to content
Scanner / All markets / Politics

2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Post ☰ See all 17 outcomes in 2028 Democratic presidential nominee →
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028
MarketMaster fair value84¢ vs live 82¢ on Polymarket
2.2% against the midpoint, 2.2% against the 82¢ ask you would actually pay, +1.6% after the 0.59¢ taker fee.
▲ +1.6% after fees · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
14¢ last
BidAsk
YES13¢14¢
NO86¢87¢
$9,687,462 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
18¢ last
BidAsk
YES18¢18¢
NO82¢82¢
$15,441,556 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.9¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 96¢ per $1 payout, locking +3.9¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.9¢
Kalshi last14¢
Polymarket last18¢
Model fair value84¢
Model confidence36%
Venues2
TRACK THIS MARKET

Get an email the moment the price or edge moves — watchlists, whale alerts and the full scanner are free to start.

Start free — no card
ELSEWHERE
RELATED MARKETS
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?13¢Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?7¢Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1¢0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.