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2028 Democratic presidential nominee — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Post ☰ See all 13 outcomes in 2028 Democratic presidential nominee →
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028
MarketMaster fair value20¢ vs live 18¢ on Kalshi
▲ +2.2% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
18¢ last
BidAsk
YES17¢18¢
NO82¢83¢
$8,102,774 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
21¢ last
BidAsk
YES21¢21¢
NO79¢79¢
$14,921,912 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.4¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 97¢ per $1 payout, locking +3.3¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.4¢
Kalshi last18¢
Polymarket last21¢
Model fair value20¢
Model confidence49%
Venues2
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