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Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

4¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	4¢	6¢
NO	94¢	96¢

$140,037 volume

PolymarketTrade ↗

12¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	12¢	12¢
NO	88¢	88¢

$17,311,338 volume

Cross-venue spread 7.6¢· active arbitrage window

CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 94¢ per $1 payout, locking +6.3¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Gavin Newsom accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Show full rules

STATS

Cross-venue spread7.6¢

Kalshi last4¢

Polymarket last12¢

Venues2

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