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Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Post ☰ See all 15 outcomes in 2028 Democratic presidential nominee →
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028
MarketMaster fair value15¢ vs live 14¢ on Kalshi
1.1% against the midpoint, 0.6% against the 14¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.2% after the 0.84¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
14¢ last
BidAsk
YES13¢14¢
NO86¢87¢
$10,527,555 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
15¢ last
BidAsk
YES15¢16¢
NO84¢85¢
$27,889,822 volume
Cross-venue spread 1.3¢
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.3¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread1.3¢
Kalshi last14¢
Polymarket last15¢
Model fair value15¢
Model confidence35%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.