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Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 14, 2028
MarketMaster fair value97¢ vs live 93¢ on Kalshi
▲ +4.5% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
last
BidAsk
YES10¢
NO90¢95¢
$8,205 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
last
BidAsk
YES
NO99¢99¢
$25,325,737 volume
Cross-venue spread 4.8¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 96¢ per $1 payout, locking +4.2¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Elon Musk endorses the Democratic candidate for President in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread4.8¢
Kalshi last
Polymarket last
Model fair value
Model confidence40%
Venues2
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