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Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028

MarketMaster fair value97¢ vs live 96¢ on Kalshi

▲ +1.3% edge · Buy NO

LIVE PRICES — YES

5¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	4¢	5¢
NO	96¢	96¢

$2,521,738 volume

PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

3¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	3¢	3¢
NO	97¢	98¢

$14,561,268 volume

Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window

CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.7¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Show full rules

STATS

Cross-venue spread2.0¢

Kalshi last5¢

Polymarket last3¢

Model fair value3¢

Model confidence40%

Venues2

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