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UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Prelims)

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 11, 2026
MarketMaster fair value50¢ vs live 49¢ on Kalshi
1.4% against the midpoint, 0.9% against the 49¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.8% after the 1.75¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
49¢ last
BidAsk
YES48¢49¢
NO51¢52¢
$14,013 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
51¢ last
BidAsk
YES48¢49¢
NO51¢52¢
$5,419 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Ismael Bonfim wins the Prado vs Bonfim professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Ismael Bonfim" if Ismael Bonfim is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francisco Prado at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Francisco Prado" if Francisco Prado is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last49¢
Polymarket last51¢
Model fair value50¢
Model confidence35%
Venues2
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