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LoL: Natus Vincere vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

KalshiPolymarket Closes Aug 3, 2026
MarketMaster fair value74¢ vs live 72¢ on Kalshi
▲ +1.6% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
78¢ last
BidAsk
YES71¢73¢
NO27¢29¢
$418 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
75¢ last
BidAsk
YES74¢75¢
NO25¢26¢
$3,925 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Natus Vincere wins the LEC 2026: Shifters vs. Natus Vincere League of Legends match originally scheduled for Aug 3, 2026 at 11:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the LoL match between Natus Vincere and Shifters in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 3 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Shifters. This market will resolve to "Shifters" if Shifters win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last78¢
Polymarket last75¢
Model fair value74¢
Model confidence35%
Venues2
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