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2028 Republican presidential nominee — Marco Rubio

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028
MarketMaster fair value28¢ vs live 26¢ on Polymarket
▲ +1.1% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
29¢ last
BidAsk
YES28¢29¢
NO71¢72¢
$4,634,420 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
26¢ last
BidAsk
YES26¢27¢
NO74¢74¢
$9,739,983 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.6¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.5¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Marco Rubio wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread2.6¢
Kalshi last29¢
Polymarket last26¢
Model fair value28¢
Model confidence44%
Venues2
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