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2028 Republican presidential nominee — Marco Rubio

Post ☰ See all 14 outcomes in 2028 Republican presidential nominee →
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 7, 2028
MarketMaster fair value16¢ vs live 15¢ on Polymarket
1.4% against the midpoint, 1.4% against the 15¢ ask you would actually pay, +0.9% after the 0.50¢ taker fee.
▲ +0.9% after fees · Buy YES
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
18¢ last
BidAsk
YES17¢18¢
NO82¢83¢
$5,657,801 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
15¢ last
BidAsk
YES15¢15¢
NO85¢85¢
$10,764,512 volume
Cross-venue spread 3.3¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.2¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Marco Rubio wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread3.3¢
Kalshi last18¢
Polymarket last15¢
Model fair value16¢
Model confidence31%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.