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Who Will Be Arrested Before 2027
Every outcome in this field. Cheapest venue highlighted; the gap column is the cross-venue spread in cents.
Yes leads this field at 21¢, ahead of Yes at 8¢. The top three of 3 priced outcomes carry about 100% of the implied probability between them. Kalshi and Polymarket are priced within 1¢ of each other across every matched outcome in this field. Around $12,669 of 24-hour volume stands behind these prices.
1 of 3 outcomes are also listed on Kalshi and machine-checked to settle on the same criteria
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | — | 21¢ | — |
| Yes | — | 8¢ | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2027✓ | 9¢ | 8¢ | 1 |
Prices are live and move constantly — confirm on the venue before trading. A ✓ means our verifier compared both venues' resolution criteria and found them equivalent; its absence means not checked yet, never that they differ. MarketMaster is read-only research, not financial advice.