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Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Jan 1, 2027
This market group is no longer actively tracked — final data shown. See live edges →
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
last
BidAsk
YES
NO95¢96¢
$1,470,894 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
last
BidAsk
YES
NO96¢96¢
$35,234,766 volume
Cross-venue spread 1.0¢
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +0.7¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If the United States purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread1.0¢
Kalshi last
Polymarket last
Venues2
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