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Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Dec 26, 2027
MarketMaster fair value11¢ vs live on Kalshi
▲ +9.8% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
last
BidAsk
YES
NO97¢100¢
$2,400 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
23¢ last
BidAsk
YES14¢15¢
NO85¢86¢
$38,454 volume
Cross-venue spread 19.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 89¢ per $1 payout, locking +11.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If SWIM is ranked #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10 Most-Streamed Songs of 2026 in U.S. (On-Demand Audio), as Published by Billboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed song (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify song globally for 2026. This market will resolve according to the name of the song listed by Spotify as the top song of 2026. If multiple songs tie for top song for 2026, this market will resolve according to the song whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If Spotify does not release who their top song for 2026 is by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped. Note: This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread19.0¢
Kalshi last
Polymarket last23¢
Model fair value11¢
Model confidence34%
Venues2
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