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Raiders vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 11, 2026
MarketMaster fair value49¢ vs live 48¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.3% against the 49¢ ask you would actually pay, -1.5% after the 1.75¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
48¢ last
BidAsk
YES47¢49¢
NO51¢53¢
$3,871 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
50¢ last
BidAsk
YES50¢51¢
NO49¢50¢
$23,270 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If LV Raiders and NE Patriots collectively score more than 45.5 points in the LV Raiders vs NE Patriots Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 11 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Raiders and Patriots combine to score 46 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 46, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last48¢
Polymarket last50¢
Model fair value49¢
Model confidence42%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.