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Raiders vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 11, 2026
MarketMaster fair value54¢ vs live 52¢ on Kalshi
1.8% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 53¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.9% after the 1.74¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
53¢ last
BidAsk
YES51¢53¢
NO47¢49¢
$2,508 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
55¢ last
BidAsk
YES53¢54¢
NO46¢47¢
$41,629 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If LV Raiders and NE Patriots collectively score more than 44.5 points in the LV Raiders vs NE Patriots Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 11 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Raiders and Patriots combine to score 45 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 45, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last53¢
Polymarket last55¢
Model fair value54¢
Model confidence45%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.