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Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 8, 2026
MarketMaster fair value41¢ vs live 34¢ on Kalshi
7.9% against the midpoint, -2.6% against the 44¢ ask you would actually pay, -4.3% after the 1.72¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
70¢ last
BidAsk
YES56¢77¢
NO23¢44¢
$897 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
56¢ last
BidAsk
YES53¢55¢
NO45¢47¢
$6,614 volume
Cross-venue spread 14.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Aurora wins the BLAST Slam 2026: 1win vs. Aurora Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Oct 8, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match between Aurora and 1win in the BLAST Slam Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against 1win. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win the match against Aurora. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 22, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 8, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread14.0¢
Kalshi last70¢
Polymarket last56¢
Model fair value41¢
Model confidence16%
Venues2
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