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Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs TheMongolz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Post
KalshiPolymarket Closes Aug 20, 2026
MarketMaster fair value30¢ vs live 23¢ on Polymarket
▲ +6.5% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
65¢ last
BidAsk
YES64¢65¢
NO35¢36¢
$1,403 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
77¢ last
BidAsk
YES77¢79¢
NO21¢23¢
$3,943 volume
Cross-venue spread 12.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 88¢ per $1 payout, locking +12.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Team Falcons wins The International 2026: Team Falcons vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Aug 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between Team Falcons and TheMongolz in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against TheMongolz. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Team Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread12.0¢
Kalshi last65¢
Polymarket last77¢
Model fair value71¢
Model confidence34%
Venues2
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