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Cincinnati vs Seattle — Cincinnati

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Jul 22, 2026
MarketMaster fair value70¢ vs live 43¢ on Polymarket
▲ +26.8% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
58¢ last
BidAsk
YES57¢58¢
NO42¢43¢
$9,838 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
43¢ last
BidAsk
YES42¢43¢
NO57¢58¢
$7,282 volume
Cross-venue spread 15.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 86¢ per $1 payout, locking +14.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Seattle wins the Cincinnati vs Seattle professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 22, 2026 at 3:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for July 22 at 3:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread15.0¢
Kalshi last58¢
Polymarket last43¢
Model fair value70¢
Model confidence41%
Venues2
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