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Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Jul 22, 2026
MarketMaster fair value33¢ vs live 22¢ on Kalshi
▲ +11.1% edge · Buy YES
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
18¢ last
BidAsk
YES17¢18¢
NO82¢83¢
$76,895 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
42¢ last
BidAsk
YES20¢22¢
NO78¢80¢
$162,882 volume
Cross-venue spread 24.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Miami and Houston collectively score more 9.5 runs in the Miami vs Houston professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 21, 2026 at 8:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Houston Astros, scheduled for July 21 at 8:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Miami Marlins and Houston Astros combine to score 10 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 10, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread24.0¢
Kalshi last18¢
Polymarket last42¢
Model fair value33¢
Model confidence46%
Venues2
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