Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Kalshi — primary rule

If the President of the United States has been impeached and convicted by the U.S. Senate before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.