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Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Aug 22, 2028
MarketMaster fair value19¢ vs live 16¢ on Kalshi
▲ +3.0% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
89¢ last
BidAsk
YES82¢87¢
NO13¢18¢
$878 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
80¢ last
BidAsk
YES79¢80¢
NO20¢21¢
$25,525 volume
Cross-venue spread 9.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Alberto Núñez Feijóo becomes Prime Minister of Spain as a result of government formation following the next Spanish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread9.0¢
Kalshi last89¢
Polymarket last80¢
Model fair value81¢
Model confidence35%
Venues2
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