Skip to content
Scanner / All markets / Science

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?

Post
Polymarket Closes Oct 1, 2026
LIVE PRICES — YES
PolymarketTrade ↗
87¢ last
BidAsk
YES86¢87¢
NO13¢14¢
$66,352 volume
Listed on Polymarket only. Kalshi does not carry a market that settles on this exact question, so there is no cross-venue price to compare here.
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread
Kalshi last
Polymarket last87¢
Venues2
TRACK THIS MARKET

Get an email the moment the price or edge moves — watchlists, whale alerts and the full scanner are free to start.

Start free — no card
RELATED MARKETS
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Ebola pandemic in 2026?Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?