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Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

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Polymarket Closes Nov 4, 2026
LIVE PRICES — YES
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3¢ last
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YES3¢3¢
NO97¢97¢
$13,560 volume
Listed on Polymarket only. Kalshi does not carry a market that settles on this exact question, so there is no cross-venue price to compare here.
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Cross-venue spread—
Kalshi last—
Polymarket last3¢
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.