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Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Aug 5, 2026
MarketMaster fair value30¢ vs live 28¢ on Polymarket
▲ +1.8% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
71¢ last
BidAsk
YES67¢70¢
NO30¢33¢
$5,025 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
73¢ last
BidAsk
YES71¢73¢
NO27¢29¢
$7,471 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If the Reserve Bank of India takes the action of Maintain current rate at August Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the change in the policy repo rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee’s August meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for August 5, 2026. This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last71¢
Polymarket last73¢
Model fair value70¢
Model confidence33%
Venues2
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