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Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Jan 1, 2028
MarketMaster fair value19¢ vs live 17¢ on Polymarket
▲ +2.3% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
81¢ last
BidAsk
YES77¢82¢
NO18¢23¢
$624 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
82¢ last
BidAsk
YES82¢85¢
NO15¢18¢
$124,798 volume
Cross-venue spread 1.0¢
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Magdalena Andersson becomes Prime Minister of Sweden as a result of government formation following the 2026 Swedish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread1.0¢
Kalshi last81¢
Polymarket last82¢
Model fair value81¢
Model confidence34%
Venues2
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