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UFC Fight Night: Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira (Welterweight, Prelims)

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Aug 2, 2026
MarketMaster fair value76¢ vs live 75¢ on Polymarket
▲ +1.5% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
23¢ last
BidAsk
YES22¢23¢
NO77¢78¢
$2,199 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
25¢ last
BidAsk
YES23¢25¢
NO75¢77¢
$3,260 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Oban Elliott wins the Elliott vs Oliveira professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Oban Elliott" if Oban Elliott is officially declared the winner of the fight against Michael Oliveira at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Michael Oliveira" if Michael Oliveira is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last23¢
Polymarket last25¢
Model fair value24¢
Model confidence34%
Venues2
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