UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee (Featherweight, Prelims)

Name: UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee (Featherweight, Prelims) — daily price history on Kalshi and Polymarket
Creator: MarketMaster
License: https://marketmaster.live/terms

Post

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Nov 1, 2026

MarketMaster fair value59¢ vs live 57¢ on Kalshi

1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 58¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.9% after the 1.71¢ taker fee.

No edge after fees

Trade on Kalshi ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiTrade ↗

43¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	42¢	43¢
NO	57¢	58¢

$62,517 volume

PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

41¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	40¢	41¢
NO	59¢	60¢

$11,342 volume

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Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window

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CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Julian Erosa wins the Julian Erosa vs Jung-Young Lee professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Julian Erosa" if Julian Erosa is officially declared the winner of the fight against JeongYeong Lee at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "JeongYeong Lee" if JeongYeong Lee is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread2.0¢

Kalshi last43¢

Polymarket last41¢

Model fair value59¢

Model confidence46%

Venues2

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