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UFC 333: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

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KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 24, 2026

This market group is no longer actively tracked — final data shown. See live edges →

MarketMaster fair value38¢ vs live 36¢ on Polymarket

1.8% against the midpoint, -1.2% against the 39¢ ask you would actually pay, -2.4% after the 1.19¢ taker fee.

No edge after fees

Trade on Polymarket ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

60¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	59¢	60¢
NO	40¢	41¢

$7,099 volume

PolymarketTrade ↗

64¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	61¢	62¢
NO	38¢	39¢

$3,150 volume

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Cross-venue spread 4.0¢· active arbitrage window

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CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Abubakar Vagaev wins the Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Abubakar Vagaev" if Abubakar Vagaev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jacob Malkoun at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Jacob Malkoun" if Jacob Malkoun is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread4.0¢

Kalshi last60¢

Polymarket last64¢

Model fair value38¢

Model confidence36%

Venues2

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