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Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic

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KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 5, 2026
MarketMaster fair value33¢ vs live 32¢ on Kalshi
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.8% against the 32¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.8% after the 1.52¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
32¢ last
BidAsk
YES31¢32¢
NO68¢69¢
$10,133 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
33¢ last
BidAsk
YES32¢33¢
NO67¢68¢
$4,278 volume
Cross-venue spread 1.0¢
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Jie Cui wins the Cui vs Vukic professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Jie Cui and Aleksandar Vukic in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jie Cui' if Jie Cui advances against Aleksandar Vukic. This market will resolve to 'Aleksandar Vukic' if Aleksandar Vukic advances against Jie Cui. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread1.0¢
Kalshi last32¢
Polymarket last33¢
Model fair value33¢
Model confidence37%
Venues2
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