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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs James Duckworth

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 7, 2026
MarketMaster fair value33¢ vs live 29¢ on Kalshi
4.3% against the midpoint, 3.3% against the 30¢ ask you would actually pay, +1.8% after the 1.47¢ taker fee.
▲ +1.8% after fees · Buy NO
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
69¢ last
BidAsk
YES70¢72¢
NO28¢30¢
$537 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
64¢ last
BidAsk
YES64¢66¢
NO34¢36¢
$7,612 volume
Cross-venue spread 5.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 96¢ per $1 payout, locking +4.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Hubert Hurkacz wins the Hurkacz vs Duckworth professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and James Duckworth in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against James Duckworth. This market will resolve to 'James Duckworth' if James Duckworth advances against Hubert Hurkacz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread5.0¢
Kalshi last69¢
Polymarket last64¢
Model fair value33¢
Model confidence37%
Venues2
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