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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Alex Molcan

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 10, 2026
MarketMaster fair value29¢ vs live 26¢ on Kalshi
3.3% against the midpoint, 1.3% against the 28¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.1% after the 1.41¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Kalshi ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiTrade ↗
75¢ last
BidAsk
YES72¢76¢
NO24¢28¢
$366 volume
PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
69¢ last
BidAsk
YES53¢69¢
NO31¢47¢
$15,529 volume
Cross-venue spread 6.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 97¢ per $1 payout, locking +3.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Alex de Minaur wins the de Minaur vs Molcan professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Shanghai Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Alex Molcan in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Alex Molcan. This market will resolve to 'Alex Molcan' if Alex Molcan advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread6.0¢
Kalshi last75¢
Polymarket last69¢
Model fair value29¢
Model confidence40%
Venues2
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