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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5

KalshiPolymarket Closes Jul 29, 2026
This market group is no longer actively tracked — final data shown. See live edges →
MarketMaster fair value46¢ vs live 38¢ on Polymarket
▲ +8.4% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
33¢ last
BidAsk
YES33¢34¢
NO66¢67¢
$613,540 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
40¢ last
BidAsk
YES41¢42¢
NO58¢59¢
$187,625 volume
Cross-venue spread 7.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 93¢ per $1 payout, locking +7.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Philadelphia and Miami collectively score more 8.5 runs in the Philadelphia vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 28, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 28 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins combine to score 9 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread7.0¢
Kalshi last33¢
Polymarket last40¢
Model fair value54¢
Model confidence51%
Venues2
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