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Kukushkin vs Sakellaridis — Mikhail Kukushkin

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 19, 2026
MarketMaster fair value69¢ vs live 67¢ on Polymarket
2.0% against the midpoint, -3.0% against the 72¢ ask you would actually pay, -4.0% after the 1.01¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
30¢ last
BidAsk
YES29¢30¢
NO70¢71¢
$25,313 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
33¢ last
BidAsk
YES28¢29¢
NO71¢72¢
$947 volume
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Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Mikhail Kukushkin wins the Kukushkin vs Sakellaridis professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Almaty Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Mikhail Kukushkin and Stefanos Sakellaridis in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mikhail Kukushkin' if Mikhail Kukushkin advances against Stefanos Sakellaridis. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Sakellaridis' if Stefanos Sakellaridis advances against Mikhail Kukushkin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread3.0¢
Kalshi last30¢
Polymarket last33¢
Model fair value69¢
Model confidence38%
Venues2
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