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Griekspoor vs Lehecka — Tallon Griekspoor

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 23, 2026
MarketMaster fair value71¢ vs live 70¢ on Polymarket
1.4% against the midpoint, 0.3% against the 71¢ ask you would actually pay, -0.7% after the 1.03¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
28¢ last
BidAsk
YES27¢28¢
NO72¢73¢
$33,589 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
30¢ last
BidAsk
YES29¢30¢
NO70¢71¢
$5,925 volume
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Cross-venue spread 2.0¢
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Tallon Griekspoor wins the Griekspoor vs Lehecka professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Brussels Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market refers to the tennis match between Tallon Griekspoor and Jiri Lehecka in the European Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tallon Griekspoor' if Tallon Griekspoor advances against Jiri Lehecka. This market will resolve to 'Jiri Lehecka' if Jiri Lehecka advances against Tallon Griekspoor. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last28¢
Polymarket last30¢
Model fair value71¢
Model confidence39%
Venues2
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