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Fight Night: Moreno vs Morales — Brandon Moreno

Post
KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Sep 13, 2026
MarketMaster fair value52¢ vs live 51¢ on Polymarket
1.3% against the midpoint, 0.3% against the 52¢ ask you would actually pay, -1.0% after the 1.25¢ taker fee.
No edge after fees
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
47¢ last
BidAsk
YES46¢47¢
NO53¢54¢
$24,531 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
49¢ last
BidAsk
YES48¢49¢
NO51¢52¢
$14,867 volume
Cross-venue spread 2.0¢· active arbitrage window
CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Kalshi and NO on Polymarket — total cost 99¢ per $1 payout, locking +1.0¢ per contract before fees.

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Brandon Moreno wins the Moreno vs Morales professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Brandon Moreno" if Brandon Moreno is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joseph Morales at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Joseph Morales" if Joseph Morales is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Show full rules
STATS
Cross-venue spread2.0¢
Kalshi last47¢
Polymarket last49¢
Model fair value52¢
Model confidence41%
Venues2
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The same question at a different strike, deadline or outcome — related, not the same contract. Prices are the latest YES.