Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan — Brendan Allen

Name: Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan — Brendan Allen — daily price history on Kalshi and Polymarket
Creator: MarketMaster
License: https://marketmaster.live/terms

Post

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Oct 11, 2026

MarketMaster fair value56¢ vs live 55¢ on Polymarket

1.3% against the midpoint, 1.3% against the 55¢ ask you would actually pay, +0.0% after the 1.24¢ taker fee.

▲ +0.0% after fees · Buy YES

Trade on Polymarket ↗

LIVE PRICES — YES

KalshiTrade ↗

58¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	57¢	58¢
NO	42¢	43¢

$2,697 volume

PolymarketBEST YES PRICETrade ↗

55¢ last

	Bid	Ask
YES	54¢	55¢
NO	45¢	46¢

$7,941 volume

Cross-venue spread 3.0¢· active arbitrage window

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Where else do the venues disagree?Live cross-venue gaps across every market Open in the analyzerPrice history, alerts and your watchlist

CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE

Buy YES on Polymarket and NO on Kalshi — total cost 98¢ per $1 payout, locking +2.0¢ per contract before fees.

Stake $

30-DAY PRICE HISTORY

HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If Brendan Allen wins the Allen vs Duncan professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Brendan Allen" if Brendan Allen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Christian Leroy Duncan at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Christian Leroy Duncan" if Christian Leroy Duncan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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STATS

Cross-venue spread3.0¢

Kalshi last58¢

Polymarket last55¢

Model fair value56¢

Model confidence33%

Venues2

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