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England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance

KalshiPolymarket ✓ Verified same-resolution Closes Aug 12, 2026
MarketMaster fair value50¢ vs live 46¢ on Polymarket
▲ +4.0% edge · Buy NO
Trade on Polymarket ↗
LIVE PRICES — YES
KalshiBEST YES PRICETrade ↗
54¢ last
BidAsk
YES53¢54¢
NO46¢47¢
$11,841,187 volume
PolymarketTrade ↗
54¢ last
BidAsk
YES54¢54¢
NO46¢46¢
$14,993,316 volume
Cross-venue spread 0.2¢
30-DAY PRICE HISTORY
HOW THIS RESOLVES

Kalshi — primary rule

If England advance past Argentina in the England vs Argentina soccer match in the Semifinal of the FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket — resolution criteria

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between England and Argentina, scheduled for July 15 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "England" if England is the team that officially advances from this match to the next round of the FIFA World Cup, or is crowned winner of the competition if this match is the final. This market will resolve to "Argentina" if Argentina is the team that officially advances from this match to the next round of the FIFA World Cup, or is crowned winner of the competition if this match is the final. This includes advancement after regulation, extra time, a penalty shoot-out, or an official ruling by the competition organizer such as forfeit, abandonment, or disqualification. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed or a team is officially declared to advance. If the game is canceled entirely and no team advances from this match, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

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STATS
Cross-venue spread0.2¢
Kalshi last54¢
Polymarket last54¢
Model fair value50¢
Model confidence57%
Venues2
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